First concerts and festivals not until the fall of 2021?

Heavy weather for the musicians, organizers, suppliers, concert halls and music fans. Due to the Corona crisis, the music industry has been completely out of whack when it comes to live concerts. When concerts can be held again remains to be seen, and now the biggest market in the United States, when you look at the music, is giving a disturbing answer.

American bioethicist and professor of health management Zeke Emanuel has predicted that major sports or music activities may not be possible until the fall of 2021. The professor was partly responsible for drawing up the Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, and is considered one of the foremost scientists in this field. Emanuel doesn’t understand that organizers are thinking of rebooking events towards the end of this year, or early next year.

“Larger gatherings – conferences, concerts, sporting events – when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return.”, Emmanuel told during the video conference.

Several music festivals around the world, including BST Hyde Park, Glastonbury, and Roskilde canceled their events in 2020, while other festivals have rebooked their dates later this year. Among others, Coachella, the South American editions of Lollapalooza, Live at Leeds Festival and other festivals have pushed dates. The scientist does not understand why organizers think this could be possible. “Realistically we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest,”, the American fears. According to him, the restart of the economy will take place in phases and more physical distance should be started in a workplace where people with a lower risk can return.

If live concerts are indeed postponed for the next year and a half, it will probably be a long time before the entire music industry will turn back to the way we are used to. Many organizers, concert halls and bands will not survive a year and a half without income. Maybe not even a single one. After the emergence of illegal downloading and the accompanying fall in music sales, the music industry may again be hit hard. Of course, many festivals will make a restart, whether or not in a slimmed-down form. And concert halls will also rise again, just like bands and other artists. But just as it was, it may never be again.

Whether Zeke Emanuel only looked at the American situation or at concerts and other events worldwide in his calculations is unknown. The researcher, consciously or unconsciously, did not make a specific trade-off between different areas.